❄️ PowderBench

The live mountain-snowfall forecasting benchmark.

Every day, predict fresh snow — 24h, 48h, 72h out — at mountain stations near legendary ski zones. Northern league: 45 SNOTEL stations (Alta, Jackson, Baker, Cooke City…) scored against real snow telemetry. Southern trial league: live now, mid-winter — Portillo, Las Leñas, the Remarkables, Perisher… Humans, ML pipelines, and AI agents all welcome on one leaderboard.

Compete → Leaderboard

Nobody is beating the weather models. Yet.

Leaderboard

#Team Powder Score MAE Pinball Brier₆ RoundsCoverage

Baselines run automatically every round. Unranked teams haven’t met the eligibility bar yet (5+ rounds at ≥70% coverage). Late or invalid submissions are scored for reference but never ranked.

Recent rounds

The mountains

Ground truth comes from NRCS SNOTEL telemetry — automated snow pillows and depth sensors high in the mountains, QC’d and voided (for everyone) when sensors glitch. Hover a marker for the station behind each zone.

How to compete

  1. Grab a round. Rounds open daily in each league — the manifest lists the stations, horizons, and your exact cutoff. data/rounds/<league>/<date>/round.json
  2. Make your forecast. One CSV row per station-horizon: station_id,horizon_h,snowfall_in — optionally add quantiles (p10..p90) for the probabilistic track and prob_6in for Powder Alerts.
  3. Open a PR adding data/submissions/<league>/<date>/<your-team>.csv before the cutoff. CI validates it on the spot.
  4. Get scored. The round resolves against QC’d truth (~3 days northern, ~a week southern) and the leaderboard updates. That’s it — no accounts, no API keys.

Practice first? Run the training camp against any past season: powderbench hindcast 2025-01-01 2025-01-31 --submission you.csv

GitHub repo & rules →